Indian stock markets are poised for volatility this week, driven primarily by the outcomes of five state assembly elections, ongoing high crude oil prices amid West Asia tensions, and the release of Q4 corporate earnings, according to market analysts.
Air India, IndiGo, and Air India Express are temporarily reducing their domestic flights due to surging jet fuel prices and lower travel demand. The airlines are cutting flights by 10 to 22 per cent in the coming months.
The Indian government has waived customs duty on critical petrochemical products until June 30 to ensure supply stability and provide relief to consumers amid disruptions caused by the crisis in West Asia.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty climbed in early trade, driven by buying in blue-chip stocks like Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank, alongside a notable cooling in crude oil prices.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has emphasised India's commitment to safe maritime transit and condemned attacks on merchant shipping amidst the ongoing West Asia conflict and global energy market disruptions.
India has welcomed the ceasefire between the US and Iran, advocating for de-escalation, dialogue, and diplomacy to secure lasting peace in West Asia.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are closely monitoring crude oil prices and considering low single-digit price increases, while consumer durables firms have already begun passing on significant price hikes to consumers due to rising input costs exacerbated by the West Asia conflict.
Uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran conflict has significantly impacted India's mutual fund industry, leading to a sharp decline in new fund offers (NFOs) in March, despite numerous regulatory approvals. This geopolitical tension, coupled with existing market strain and distributor hesitation, has dampened investor sentiment and affected overall inflows.
The threat has raised concerns about possible asymmetric attacks outside the region. Iran has also stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf countries.
India's sugar consumption is projected to fall by nearly 400,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 season, primarily due to the ongoing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortage exacerbated by the West Asia conflict and unseasonably cool weather.
The support will be provided to oil-marketing companies (OMCs) in the form of interest-free advances through the ministry of petroleum and natural gas. The OMCs, in turn, will use the fund to provide ATF price stabilisation support to Indian carriers operating domestic and international flights.
Accenture's revised annual revenue growth forecast and weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance have sent shockwaves through the Indian IT sector, causing major IT stocks and the Nifty IT index to tumble significantly.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar addresses the Indian Ocean Conference, expressing deep concern over the West Asia conflict and its economic repercussions on energy, trade, and food security. India calls for a swift return to peace and opposes targeting civilians and infrastructure.
Opposition parties are demanding a full Parliament discussion on the West Asia conflict, criticising the government's silence and calling for a contingency plan to protect India's energy security and citizens.
BJP leader Mithun Chakraborty has criticised the West Bengal government over high fuel taxes and alleged security lapses, particularly concerning women's safety and border control.
Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed advocates for building democratic institutions over military intervention in resolving international conflicts, particularly in the context of the escalating West Asia crisis. He also discusses the impact of the conflict on the Maldives' tourism-dependent economy and calls for a stronger, more understanding India in the Indian Ocean Region.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stated that India has demonstrated resilience in the face of recent global shocks, including the conflict in West Asia, while speaking at the convocation ceremony of IIM Raipur. He emphasised the importance of building national capabilities to de-risk and develop leverage in a changing global order.
Foreign investors have aggressively sold off Indian equities, withdrawing over 48,213 crore in the first 10 days of April, following a record 1.17 lakh crore outflow in March, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, rising crude oil prices, and global inflation concerns.
Airlines are cutting not only international services but also domestic flights, especially on routes projected to remain unprofitable in the coming weeks due to weak demand and high fares.
Airfares to Southeast Asia have surged 25 to 30 per cent, driven by high demand and limited airline seat capacity.
Air India has deferred annual salary increments for its staff by at least one quarter and urged a "relentless focus on costs" due to external headwinds like the closure of Pakistan airspace, West Asia conflict, rupee depreciation, and a significant surge in aviation turbine fuel prices, though the airline has assured there will be no layoffs.
Sharp differences between Iran and the UAE over the West Asia conflict were on full display during the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi, signalling the challenges the bloc faces in reaching a consensus position on the crisis.
South India's manufacturing, construction, and services sectors are grappling with severe labour shortages, prompting employers to offer attractive incentives like free air tickets and salary increments to lure migrant workers back from their home states after recent assembly elections.
Infrastructure major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) reported a 3 per cent year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit for Q4 FY26, reaching 5,325.60 crore, primarily due to exceptional gains in the previous year. Despite this, the company's consolidated order book surged by 28 per cent to 7.4 trillion, with international orders accounting for 52 per cent.
The World Para Athletics Grand Prix in New Delhi has been significantly affected by the conflict in West Asia and the month of Ramzan, leading to a sharp decline in international participation.
Benchmark indices tumbled about 2 per cent on Friday, capping one of the most turbulent weeks for domestic equities as investors fretted that the West Asian conflict could drag on for weeks or even months.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran for the third time recently to mediate peace amidst rising tensions between the US and Iran. Pakistan is actively leading diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict in West Asia, which has impacted global energy markets and trade.
Indian Grandmaster Koneru Humpy has withdrawn from the FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament, citing concerns over her personal safety amidst the West Asia conflict.
The ongoing West Asia conflict is expected to severely impact the supply of affordable housing in India, as rising input costs further erode already thin developer margins. Fluctuations in crude oil and gas prices, coupled with higher freight costs, are driving up prices of essential construction materials like cement and steel, making new projects increasingly unviable for developers.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged for restraint in the use of petro products due to the West Asia crisis, emphasising the need to save foreign exchange and reduce the impact of war. He also highlighted India's progress in solar power and ethanol blending, while assuring support to Telangana's development.
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil prices, and global trends will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Foreign investor activity and rupee movement will also be crucial.
Domestic LPG and commercial cylinder prices in India have seen a significant increase, driven by rising global energy costs linked to the conflict in West Asia. This marks the second price hike in less than a year, impacting households and businesses.
Despite the ongoing West Asia conflict causing global trade route disruptions, Mercedes-Benz India reports resilient customer demand, particularly for its new electric CLA sedan, though it faces challenges with component supply delays and escalating shipping costs.
'PM Modi is trying to reduce the volume of fuel consumed instead of raising prices sharply.'
India's crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high of approximately 2.73 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, driven by discounts of $2-5 a barrel. This surge comes as the West Asia crisis disrupted supplies from traditional sources and China reduced its own purchases, leading Russia to offer more favourable terms to India.
Due to airspace restrictions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, Indian domestic carriers have cancelled 278 international flights. Some airlines are operating limited services and special flights to assist stranded passengers.
